California EV Sales Hit 19.1% Without a Tax Credit
Quick Answer
California's new zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales hit 19.1% of all new vehicle purchases in the second quarter of 2026 — the highest share ever recorded without a federal tax credit in place, and only 2.5 percentage points below the same quarter last year when the $7,500 federal credit still existed. Nationally, EV share has been stuck at 5.8% for three straight quarters, according to Cox Automotive. A new California program called MyFirstEV, launching in August 2026, will add $3,500 off new EVs (up to $50,000 MSRP) or $1,750 off used EVs (up to $25,000) for first-time ZEV buyers.
Written by Morgan Ellis, Editor at GearUp Insights | About the Editor | Last reviewed: July 24, 2026
Why This Matters
The federal EV tax credit ended for good on September 30, 2025. Since then, the working assumption in most ownership-cost math has been that EV demand would soften without a $7,500 discount baked into the price. Nationally, that is roughly what happened — EV share of new vehicle sales has held flat at 5.8% for three consecutive quarters, per Cox Automotive's Q2 2026 report. But California's numbers, released by the California Energy Commission (CEC) on July 20, tell a different story, and the timing lines up with the same gas-price surge covered in our ongoing pump-price tracker.
The Numbers: California's Q2 2026 ZEV Sales
Californians bought 86,857 new zero-emission vehicles in the second quarter of 2026, representing 19.1% of all new car sales in the state — up 3.3 percentage points from the first quarter. Of that total, 75,597 were battery-electric vehicles, 11,179 were plug-in hybrids, and 81 were hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. Counting EVs alone, that is 16.6% of new car sales in California, compared with 5.8% nationally.
| Metric | California | National (Cox Automotive) |
|---|
| New EV share of car sales, Q2 2026 | 16.6% | 5.8% |
| New ZEV share (EV + PHEV + FCEV), Q2 2026 | 19.1% | -- |
| Change vs. prior quarter | +3.3 points | Flat for 3 straight quarters |
| vs. same quarter last year (federal credit still active) | -2.5 points | -- |
California's charging buildout has kept pace with demand: the state now has 216,445 public and shared charging ports, more than 20,000 DC fast chargers, and an estimated 800,000 home chargers, according to CEC data. That density is a big part of why the tax credit's disappearance hasn't dented demand the way it has nationally — charging access remains one of the biggest practical barriers for EV buyers everywhere else.
The New Incentive: MyFirstEV, Starting in August
Signed into law this month under SB 168, California's MyFirstEV program will give first-time ZEV buyers an instant rebate at the dealership:
- $3,500 off new electric vehicles with an MSRP up to $50,000
- $1,750 off used electric vehicles sold for up to $25,000 through a manufacturer's certified pre-owned program
- Open to any Californian buying or leasing their first ZEV
The program is funded by a $135 million state investment, matched dollar-for-dollar by 13 participating automakers — Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Lucid, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Rivian, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota, and Volvo — for a combined $270 million in point-of-sale savings. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is overseeing the program, with details on funding availability expected in August 2026.
What This Means If You're Not in California
If you don't live in California, the 5.8% national EV share is the more relevant number, and it's a reminder that the federal tax credit's disappearance really did remove a meaningful chunk of the financial case for a lot of buyers. That doesn't mean the incentive landscape is empty — it means it's now fragmented and state-by-state. Our guide to what's still available after the federal credit ended breaks down which states and utilities still offer rebates, and it's worth checking before assuming there's nothing left on the table.
It's also worth watching whether other states follow California's lead. State-funded, automaker-matched rebate structures like MyFirstEV are a relatively new model, and if it succeeds at holding EV demand steady in California through 2026, it's a template other states could copy rather than build from scratch.
What MyFirstEV Actually Replaces — And What It Doesn’t
The headline comparison everyone reaches for is $3,500 versus the old $7,500 federal credit, but that framing understates how much narrower MyFirstEV actually is. GearUp analysis, accessed August 2, 2026:
| Incentive | Amount | Eligibility | Status |
|---|
| Federal EV tax credit | Up to $7,500 | Any qualifying buyer | Ended Sept 30, 2025 |
| MyFirstEV (new EV) | $3,500 | First-time ZEV buyers only, MSRP ≤ $50,000 | Launching August 2026 |
| MyFirstEV (used EV) | $1,750 | First-time ZEV buyers only, price ≤ $25,000 | Launching August 2026 |
The $50,000 MSRP cap is waived for vehicles built by California-headquartered, EV-only automakers — a carve-out that benefits Rivian and Lucid more than Tesla, whose lineup mostly sits above the cap on its higher trims.
Run the math on the headline number and MyFirstEV replaces 46.7% of the value of the old federal credit ($3,500 ÷ $7,500) for a first-time buyer of a new EV under $50,000 — leaving a $4,000 gap per vehicle that no incentive currently covers. For a repeat EV buyer, the gap isn’t $4,000, it’s the full $7,500, since MyFirstEV eligibility is restricted to first-time ZEV buyers only. That’s a distinction the “EV incentives” conversation tends to gloss over: the credit didn’t just shrink, it also grew an eligibility wall around it.
A First-Time Buyer’s Real Numbers
Take a Chevrolet Equinox EV at roughly $45,000 MSRP — comfortably under the $50,000 cap and one of the models cited as MyFirstEV-eligible. Under the old federal credit, a first-time buyer’s effective purchase price was $45,000 − $7,500 = $37,500. Under MyFirstEV, that same purchase becomes $45,000 − $3,500 = $41,500 — a net cost that’s $4,000 higher, or about 10.7% more expensive in effective terms, than the identical purchase would have been a year ago.
That gap looks smaller once you factor in what else moved: California’s EV share had fallen to roughly 15.7% of new car sales in Q1 2026 before climbing back to the 19.1% cited above in Q2, which suggests gas prices, charging access, and model availability are doing real work independent of the incentive math. But for a buyer running the numbers today, the honest starting point is that MyFirstEV closes less than half the gap left by the federal credit’s expiration — and only for buyers who’ve never owned a ZEV before.
Our Take
The national EV market and the California EV market are telling two different stories about the same tax credit expiring. Nationally, demand went flat. In California, it barely dipped — and a new state-funded rebate is about to add back roughly half of what the federal credit used to be worth, for first-time buyers only. First-time EV buyers in California have a timing lever here: the August rollout is worth waiting for rather than buying the week before it lands.
Our Take
Every time a subsidy disappears, there's a reflexive assumption that demand disappears with it. California's Q2 numbers are a useful check on that assumption — sustained high gas prices and locally available charging infrastructure turned out to matter more than a lot of forecasts gave them credit for. Whether MyFirstEV is enough to keep that trend going once the novelty wears off is a genuinely open question, and one worth watching once the August rollout details land.
Sources
- California Energy Commission, "EV Sales Rebound as Trump's War with Iran Rages On," July 20, 2026 — energy.ca.gov
- Office of Governor Gavin Newsom, "Governor Newsom secures 13 automakers to offer instant rebates for first-time ZEV buyers," July 16, 2026 — gov.ca.gov
- Cox Automotive, Q2 2026 EV Sales Report — coxautoinc.com
- Electrek, "California's new $3,500 EV rebate favors Rivian and Lucid over Tesla," July 13, 2026 — electrek.co
This article is for educational purposes only. Program details, especially MyFirstEV rollout timing and funding availability, are subject to change — check CARB's official program page before making a purchase decision based on it.