EV vs Gas: Five-Year Cost Table and Break-Even Analysis
By GearUp Insights · Published May 30, 2026
In GearUp’s worked five-year scenario, the EV saves $2,739 on energy but costs $4,261 more overall. Its purchase-price gap, insurance and home equipment more than consume the fuel savings. That is the calculation a fuel-cost headline leaves out.
Updated September 14, 2026. This is a transparent scenario worksheet for U.S. buyers, not a market average or a price forecast. Every vehicle, resale, insurance and fuel input below is an explicit assumption. The home electricity benchmark is from EIA June 2026 preliminary data.
The five-year comparison, line by line
Both vehicles travel 12,000 miles/year for five years: 60,000 miles. The EV uses 30 purchased kWh/100 miles, with 80% of energy at home at 18.34¢/kWh and 20% public at an assumed 45¢. The gas car achieves an assumed 30 mpg with gasoline held at $3.50/gallon. Prices stay constant; cash purchase avoids loan-interest assumptions.
| Five-year item | EV scenario | Gas scenario |
|---|
| Out-the-door purchase | $40,000 | $34,000 |
| Less resale proceeds | −$18,000 | −$16,000 |
| Energy / gasoline | $4,260.96 | $7,000.00 |
| Insurance | $10,000 | $8,500 |
| Maintenance and repairs | $2,500 | $3,500 |
| Recurring registration and fees | $2,500 | $1,500 |
| Home equipment and installation | $1,500 | $0 |
| Total net ownership cost | $42,760.96 | $38,500.00 |
GearUp calculation: purchase minus resale plus operating costs and equipment. Taxes and initial transaction fees are included in the assumed out-the-door prices; recurring registration is separate. Do not add depreciation a second time: purchase minus resale already represents the value lost.
The EV costs 71.27¢/mile and the gas car 64.17¢/mile over this modeled period. These are ownership costs after resale, not monthly loan payments or energy prices. Insurance, repairs and resale figures are deliberately replaceable inputs rather than claims about a particular model.
Trace the energy calculation
EV blended electricity price = 0.8 × $0.1834 + 0.2 × $0.45 = $0.23672/kWh. Five-year purchased energy = 60,000 × 30 ÷ 100 = 18,000 kWh. Energy expense = 18,000 × $0.23672 = $4,260.96. Gasoline expense = 60,000 ÷ 30 × $3.50 = $7,000.
That creates $2,739.04 in EV energy savings. The other modeled costs leave the EV $7,000 higher before energy, so the remaining gap is $4,260.96. The Home vs Public Charging Study explains how charging access changes this part of the worksheet.
Three charging cases
Hold every non-energy input constant and change only the home/public split. This isolates charging access; it does not claim the same equipment spending is necessary for a public-only owner.
| Home-energy share | EV five-year energy | EV total | EV cost above gas |
|---|
| 100% | $3,301.20 | $41,801.20 | $3,301.20 |
| 80% | $4,260.96 | $42,760.96 | $4,260.96 |
| 0% | $8,100.00 | $46,600.00 | $8,100.00 |
A public-only buyer who avoids the assumed $1,500 home installation would reduce the last row’s total to $45,100. This is why a worksheet must remove costs that no longer apply when a scenario changes.
The purchase and resale thresholds
In the base case, the EV purchase quote would need to fall by $4,260.96, from $40,000 to $35,739.04, to reach five-year cost equality if every other input—including resale—stayed fixed. Alternatively, EV resale would need to reach $22,260.96 instead of $18,000. Neither is a forecast; both show how much a quote or resale assumption would have to change.
If EV resale is $3,000 lower than the base case, its total rises by exactly $3,000 to $45,760.96. A $600/year increase in insurance has the same five-year effect. Those two sensitivities each exceed the modeled $2,739 energy saving. Get insurance quotes for the actual trims and test several resale values before treating the result as durable.
Does higher mileage recover the gap?
At the base prices, energy savings are $3.50 ÷ 30 − 0.30 × $0.23672 = about 4.565¢/mile. Recovering the $7,000 non-energy disadvantage would require roughly 153,338 miles over five years, or 30,668 miles/year, if all other costs stayed fixed.
This is an arithmetic threshold, not a practical forecast: higher mileage changes resale, tire replacement, repairs and possibly insurance. Rebuild those inputs before using it to justify a purchase. If EV energy costs as much as or more than gasoline per mile, there is no energy-based mileage break-even for a positive non-energy premium.
Build a decision from actual quotes
Compare vehicles that meet the same passenger, cargo and trip requirements. Replace purchase and insurance values with written quotes. Use the official FuelEconomy.gov comparison for the correct model year and trim, then test consumption that reflects your route. Use purchased-energy figures consistently; do not add charging losses twice.
If financing, add interest and applicable loan fees, not both the purchase price and all principal repayments. If you will sell before the loan ends, handle the remaining balance consistently in a separate cash-flow view. Count a rebate only after verifying eligibility and funding; no incentive is assumed here. Maintenance estimates should include tires and out-of-warranty contingencies for each model, not only scheduled oil changes.
Our judgment for this scenario is specific: energy savings alone do not support paying the assumed $6,000 upfront premium. A smaller purchase gap, favorable insurance quote or different resale outcome could change that decision. Repeat the worksheet with your own inputs rather than treating this hypothetical pair as evidence that a powertrain always wins.
Sources and calculation method
The 18.34¢ home benchmark comes from EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A, June 2026 residential U.S. total, released August 26, 2026 and accessed September 14, 2026. It is an average residential price, not an EV tariff. See the 50-State Home Charging Cost Index for geographic comparisons.
Official tools for replacing assumptions: FuelEconomy.gov vehicle comparison and DOE AFDC Vehicle Cost Calculator, accessed September 14, 2026. They are reference tools; the hypothetical vehicle costs in our table are not sourced from them.
GearUp calculated totals from unrounded inputs, then rounded dollar displays to cents. The model excludes inflation, discounting, investment opportunity cost, downtime and time spent charging. It is a nominal five-year scenario, not a prediction.
Start with the charging calculator, check any subscription using the Membership Break-Even Index, and collect the wider assumptions in the Vehicle Decision Summary.